Talk:Mann Co. Supply Crate

Votes for new quote

I think that this one is a bit funnier.

“

Each and every one of you will be sent home to your momma in a box! Click to listen — The Soldier

”

[] /shadow/sShaD'OhsS 05:40, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

Votes:

No. This is already used on the Black Box page. The wiki just seems vain if it uses the same quotes over and over again.--Focusknock 08:41, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

 No I agree with Focusknock. That quote is already being used for the Black Box, and frankly it is better suited to that page. Also, "Hippo-crates" never gets old! -- Alex2539 08:46, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

Actually, it bugs me. We need a different quote, the current one makes me feel like we just don't have anything better. ~ lhavelund ^{(talk ▪ contrib)} 23:52, 31 October 2010 (UTC)

 Yes I agree with lund. There are lots of other unused quotes that would be better suited. FlotsamX 01:04, 7 November 2010 (UTC)

 Neutral For this idea, though I have no idea if it's been used, I would suggest *"Another satisfied customer!"" from the Engineer. :) --Fragment of Nothing 19:05, 11 November 2010 (UTC)

Description

You need a Mann Co. Supply Crate Key to open this. You can pick one up at the Mann Co. Store.

"This crate contains one of the items listed in its description. To unlock the crate and retrieve the item, you must use a Mann Co. Supply Crate Key, which can be purchased inside the Mann Co. Store. These crates contain one of the rarest and most valuable items in the game, so cross your fingers before you unlock them!" Mann Co. Catalog

How is it obtained?

Is it found through drops?--Jordan 10:59, 1 October 2010 (UTC)

Yes I just got one dropped. Now I just need a key... Dzjudz 15:49, 1 October 2010 (UTC)

The crates drop randomly, the keys to open them are purchase-only. -RJ 15:50, 1 October 2010 (UTC)

How is it randomized?

Does each item have the same chance of being uncrated, or is there a weighted system?--Gatherto

Maybe we should put a percentage table on the page so people can post what they got?--Corrderio

I collected some data from SPUF based on that

From what we got so far(114 samples) there is

38.59% chance of getting an old weapon

21.05% chance of getting a hat

20.17% chance of getting a paint can

9.64 % chance of getting a name tag

7.89 % chance of getting a polycount weapon

2.63 % chance of getting an unusual hat --Banished one 10:03, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

I'm not so sure that the data should be on the page just yet. It's still new, can we confirm those observations? --Fragment of Nothing 10:10, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

I currently have a thread on the Steam forums [1] where I'm tallying up what people have opened so far. Currently, a total of 326 crates. I just hope it helps with the statistics. --Toahpt 17:07 7 October 2010 (EST) As of 22:41, 7 October, There's a total of 687 crates tallied on my thread. I'm sure the number will continue to grow. --Toahpt

No, but the page does say "It may contain content that is inaccurate or undocumented" at the top. I thought we should have some numbers to give people a vague idea about what to expect from a crate.--Banished one 10:22, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

Out of the eight I have opened, 2 gunslingers, 2 scottish resistance, 2 black paint, 1 white paint, 1 old guadalajero. Hope that helps at all.Rhonlore 01:36, 7 October 2010 (UTC)

What does it drop like?

Does it have the same drop rate as an item, a hat, or its own drop rate?--Gatherto

i'm not sure if it has it's own drop rate but certainly it's not as rare as a hat.--Banished one 10:53, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

I'm led to believe that the drop rate is similar if not the same as weapons...  – Smashman _(talk) 11:05, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

From my experience one usually drops for each player every week. So it's not as rare as a hat but it doesn't drop as often as weapons. The timer is somewhere in between the two. Moussekateer 15:38, 31 October 2010 (UTC)

I think the crates have their own drop "schedule" separate from standard items, as I've gotten double-drops with an item + a crate before in the middle of gameplay, and I got a crate about 2 minutes after getting an item once. I've also gotten crates completely by themselves with no items shortly before or after. They're slightly less frequent than item drops, but still fairly common. My experience has been ~1 crate for every 6 to 10 items, or 1 or 2 crates per week. Will-T 21:26, 11 November 2010 (UTC)

I've also noticed this. I've seen double drops with Crates, Name Tags and Description Tags. I would hazard a guess that there are two drop timers. One for weapons/hats, one for tools. Maybe the hats are separate too? I think this discussion should move over to the Item Drop System page. I'll start discussion there on this topic. Iloverice 23:55, 11 November 2010 (UTC)

Drop rate table

Would it be possible to have in this section of the talk page a freely editable drop rate table based on what users get in the crate? For example, this is the data I have so far:

Item Given	Number of Times	Odds*
Vita-Saw	46	8.7%
Gunslinger	63	12.6%
Equalizer	57	10%
Scottish Resistance	57	11%
Old Guadalajara	57	10.94%
Napper's Respite	58	10.2%
Name Tag	65	12.6%
An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge	58	11.3%
A Distinctive Lack of Hue	53	10.2%
Exceedingly Rare Special Item!	10	1.92%
	468

* Odds accurate as of 11:56PM UTC October 7.

Sorry for making possibly the world's worst looking table but I wanted to make sure to post this so I didn't forget. Binerexis 22:49, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

Good idea! Added my Napper's Respite.  – Smashman _(talk) 22:58, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

Will suffer horribly from sampling error. Just saying. -The Neotank ( | Talk) 23:01, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

I can add a bit more anecdotal data, if that'll help: 2 Vita-Saw, 3 Scottish Resistance, 1 Gunslinger, 4 Napper's Respite, 2 Old Guadalajara, 2 Name Tag, 2 Distinct Lack of Hue. RukiTanuki 06:22, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

If someone could add a 'total' row and work out the percentage drop rate for the data collected so far (maybe make the table look better while they're at it) then I would be very, very grateful. Would do it myself but just sneaking a peak at work. Binerexis 12:22, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

Jeez Bin, you should work on your Wiki ninja editing skills more :P

Added my black paint. I'll open my other crate later and improve the table in a bit. TheChrisD ^{Rants•Edits} 13:15, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

Added data for 67 unboxings that have occurred on my servers since saturday, 67 unboxed out of a total of 271 dropped (8% of drops, the highest amount out of any item).--Geit 22:27, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

added my white paint drop RiVenoX 02:23, 5 October 2010 (UTC)

Old Guadalajara in my second crate, added odds for the moment. Probably don't need to update them every time you add something, maybe every 20 or so added, recalculate. TheChrisD ^{Rants•Edits} 04:00, 5 October 2010 (UTC)

Just got a vita- saw, didn't fix up the odds yet, just changed the vitasaw and total count

Added the items I've got from my 3 crates so far: Scottish Resistance, Scottish Resistance, Old Guadalajara--KefkaticFanatic 01:23, 6 October 2010 (UTC)

Added the items I got last night. 2 Scottish Resistance. (rage) -- ShunyValdez 02:08, 6 October 2010 (UTC)

Added an Equaliser an unlucky friend of mine got and re-did the odds. Binerexis 11:56, 6 October 2010 (UTC)

I've added 29 items opened by someone I saw at reddit. The video proof and link is here. -- ShunyValdez 08:16, 7 October 2010 (UTC)

New data added from http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1483294 --Firestorm 01:32, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

Are these statistics taken from my thread on the Steam forums? [2] --Toahpt

I don't think they were until Firestorm may have added them though. TheChrisD ^{Rants•Edits} 02:49, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

I've put together a Google Docs Spreadsheet based on the data in Toahpt's Steam forums thread. You can find it here: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Al0wGfkwkDDydHB2RzI0TXh3QTI1SXY0Y0Q3R0hWRVE&hl=en&authkey=CMj2p8QE It includes a breakdown by the item as well as their respective type. Comments and suggestions are welcome here: http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1496714 Schmoe 21:45, 10 October 2010 (UTC)

That's a pretty good idea actually. It'd be a good idea to maybe start adding more alternate sources other than SPUF and YouTube to that sheet, although I'm not sure if we can use data on this page unless it's sanitized, given that I think data already from the SPUF thread has been added. Nonetheless, I'll see what I can dig up and add the data when I get the chance. TheChrisD ^{Rants•Edits} 04:20, 12 October 2010 (UTC)

I try to verify unusual drops based on the SPUF poster's steam community page and tf2items.com. If I can't verify the item I will either add the drop to the Data tab with a comment or ignore the poster if the odds of dropping the item are out of line with what the statistics show. So far I haven't seen a lot of trolling. Schmoe 15:51, 15 October 2010 (UTC)

We can also add another set of worksheets to the spreadsheet that would only include youtube sources, however I think the dataset would be a lot smaller though 100% verifiable. So far my spreadsheet doesn't fall far off mark, but it would be interesting to compare them. Schmoe 16:10, 15 October 2010 (UTC)

I still continue to add more to my OP of the thread. I don't have as many sample crates of series 1 as the spreadsheet, but I have more samples of 3, 4, and 5. Just thought I should let everyone know. http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1483294 --Toahpt

Added new rows from crate series 2 and data from the past couple of days on my servers--23:21, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

If this drop table is added to the main page, I believe it should be simplified to Weapons, Hats, Tools, and Unusual Hats. Just a thought, though. --Toahpt

With the addition of the Series 2 crate, the table should be changed to reflect that if we assume that the drop rate is the same in every crate (which seems to be a fairly safe solution). The alternative would be to have a Series 1 table and a Series 2 table. The data from both of them (as in specific items) should NOT be on the same table as the percent chances will not be reflective of individual crates but rather if all items available had a chance of coming from every crate dropped. Binerexis 13:10, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

The new drop rate table only takes into account server logs? What methodology did you use to separate rare Series 1 and Series 2 drops? All in all it falls in line with the stats collected by the steam forum pages, but I think it assumes that rare drops are equally likely to occur in either series. Actually it looks like the SPUF posters must have overstated their Series 2 hat drops which falls in line with my expectations of human behavior. For example a user that opened 5 crates could have reported only one of the crates which the user was proud of. Same goes for rare items which is why I added another column for verified drops. Maybe I should extend it to more than just rare drops. Schmoe 16:33, 24 October 2010 (UTC)

I dug up Luigi30's SPUF post regarding this data. He was unable to account for how rare items dropped according to series. Could be minor, but it makes a large assumption. I've added a note regarding rare items to the drop rate table section. http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showpost.php?p=17708725&postcount=866

I have no way to determine which series crate a rare item dropped from within the TF2 framework. I've emailed Robin about this but haven't gotten a response. :( LuigiThirty 02:01, 27 October 2010 (UTC)

Also added a note regarding the assumption that crates drop uniformly across all series. In other words are series #1 dropping less often than #2? Does the server logs account for this? Schmoe 17:03, 24 October 2010 (UTC)

Series 1 crates are more a little more common in my log than series 2 since they were introduced (it's a 54/46 split), but that could be accounted for by them existing 6 days prior to the introduction of Series 2. An equal chance for each one is likely. LuigiThirty 02:01, 27 October 2010 (UTC)

Does series 1 still drop?

Does series 1 still drop? -Ravedave 01:53, 7 October 2010 (UTC)

I just found one, but it seemed like it just hadn't propagated into my backpack correctly until I did a trade. Can somebody else confirm? --Qpingu 00:23, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

Series 1 still drops. Not sure if this is a bug or if it is intentional. --Qpingu 00:27, 10 October 2010 (UTC)

I have received series 1 crate today via the drop systemNooch 04:26, 12 October 2010 (UTC)

Series 1 Crate

Uncrate/Unbox

Whenever I open a crate and then return to the game, the chat reads 'has unboxed', not 'has uncrated' as stated on this page. Is uncrated even a word?--Focusknock 08:42, 8 October 2010 (UTC)

It should be "unboxed", uncrated is probably a mistranslation. --Banished one 19:36, 9 October 2010 (UTC)

The yellow text in the introduction is very ugly to read on a white background. Apparently the Font Color template doesn't work on the TF2 wiki. (at least, according to it failing on me) -- AileTheAlien 21:11, 9 October 2010 (UTC)

Crate drops use a different distribution system

"Dropped crates do not count as part of the weekly drop cap, but are instead part of a different distribution system." Is there a source or reasoning for this?--Mechlord 00:52, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

-I believe there was an email from Robin regarding this, in which he stated it was on a different drop system, so those who rely on drops for items weren't left in the cold. Zombie James 16:37, 21 October 2010 (UTC)

I would love to see a link to this email. It'll be informative and a good addition to the wiki. ShunyValdez 02:04, 22 October 2010 (UTC)

Doesn't this seem a bit odd?

It seems a bit odd that in Series #1, the two hats are the most commonly gained items, when hats are normally rare via the drop system... AbeX300 04:05, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

Based on the data in the table above, it does seem that the new hats drop at a fair rate but the data isn't from the entire population of TF2 or even from a representative sample, it's just from people who have very kindly submitted their data. The more people we can get to submit data, the better. Binerexis 13:13, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

Crates can drop crates?

See SPUF thread. The only report I've come across. Any confirmation?-RJ 12:18, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

No crate has ever dropped a crate on my server. LuigiThirty 01:58, 27 October 2010 (UTC)

Series 2 Drop Table

Item Given	Number of Times	Odds*
L'Etranger	2	7.69%
The Black Box	3	11.54%
The ShortStop	3	11.54%
The Black Box	3	11.54%
Pugilist Protector	1	3.84%
Chieftain's Challenge	1	3.84%
Australium Gold	4	15.38%
A Deep Commitment to Purple	6	23.08%
Dueling Mini-Game	3	11.54%
	26

Please edit this table for any Crate Series 2 results you get. If it turns out that the odds in this table are similar to that in the Series 1 crates then we'll merge the data together to get percent chances of Weapon, Hat, Paint, Action Item and Unusual Hat. Binerexis 13:26, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

Series 3

Have there been any yet? Scatmanjohn 14:21, 14 October 2010 (UTC)

No --Firestorm 14:26, 14 October 2010 (UTC)

You need me to open one and see what I get? :) Über Spycrab 23:51, 28 October 2010 (UTC)

Even if no one asked, I opened a #4 and got a whoopee cap. Add that to your chart on the page if you like. Über Spycrab 19:13, 30 October 2010 (UTC)

I opened one and got a Bombing Run, just to let you know.

Drop rates and their factuality...

I really don't think we should rely on community feedback for the drop rates of items in crates. I just think a) the sample sizes are way too small to run a proper statistical analysis on, and b) it's too easily manipulated. I'd like to have a discussion on it, but my proposal is to disregard these unofficial statistics completely, as wiki editors. ~ lhavelund ^{(t ▪ c)} 03:31, 16 October 2010 (UTC)

I added stats based on logs directly from my server (with a 5000+ crate sample size) and plugged them instead. The numbers look a lot more consistent now. LuigiThirty 01:58, 27 October 2010 (UTC)

Steam users crate reports

I've been comparing the data collected in the Steampowered thread compared to my server's logs and I've noticed that in the series 1 crates, the Vita-Saw seems to be underrepresented while Old Guadalajara and Napper's Respite seem to be overrepresented. This may be a consequence of people not wanting to say they got a Vita-Saw but bragging that they got hats. LuigiThirty 04:19, 6 November 2010 (UTC)

I thought exactly that. Somewhat similar with the Unusual reports too. The initial numbers were at 2.5% for the series 1 and 1.5% for the Series 2. I have to say I think trading server statistics seem somewhat reliable for the purposes of estimating drop rate. Lemon 00:28, 7 November 2010 (UTC)

Series 3,4,5 crate statistics

Their sample size is extremely small, to the point where they're statistically unsound and useless. I'm going to remove them until User:LuigiThirty, or anyone else, has more reliable data. Moussekateer 17:34, 11 November 2010 (UTC)

I have slightly reliable data at the moment. Most people tell me that the samples aren't accurate because people only tell me what they got if it was bad or if it was good. Considering people do both, I'd say it's fairly accurate. --Toahpt

Will there be actual statistics of these crates in the near future? M-NINJA 11:52, 16 November 2010 (UTC)

The numbers are hard to derive because of items duplicated between crate series, but a reasonable estimate can be gotten with what's available. I'll have something up tomorrow. LuigiThirty 08:25, 24 November 2010 (UTC)

Multiple crate series for a single crate?

Over on TF2Items.net it will sometimes list a crate in someone's backpack as being from 2 "series," with "Crate series #X" on one line and "Crate Series #Y" on a second line below that. So it could say "Crate Series #5, Crate Series #1." Usually both lines will be the same number, but still, I've seen a significant number of crates with two different numbers on them. What does this mean? Is it just a glitch with TF2Items.net? I know that crates are never listed as being from more than 1 series in-game. Will-T 19:06, 11 November 2010 (UTC)

Timing bug

When I was opening a series 2 crate I got disconected from the server and the countdown whent up to 500! anyone else has had the same problem? Just curious --Warudragon 22:13, 14 November 2010 (UTC)

Unusual drop rate

So I've gotten around to calculating the actual unusual unboxing rate universally and it's 0.7042%, but I can't split that up into crate series since I don't know what crates had what inside, just that those items appeared. I do know that the rate has held constant since I started tracking the data on October 14. I'm not sure how to add this in there. LuigiThirty 08:27, 24 November 2010 (UTC)

How big was the sample? I guessed it would be 1%... Moussekateer 08:28, 24 November 2010 (UTC)

7687 crates, 54 of which contained unusuals. LuigiThirty 18:58, 24 November 2010 (UTC)